Anders Sandberg -The Technological Singularity
Anders gives a short tutorial on the Singularity – clearing up confusion and highlighting important aspects of the Technological Singularity and related ideas, such as accelerating change, horizons of predictability, self-improving artificial intelligence, and the intelligence explosion.
Points covered in the tutorial:
- The Mathematical Singularity
- The Technological Singularity: A Horizon of predictability
- Confusion Around The Technological Singularity
- Drivers of Accelerated Growth
- Technology Feedback Loops
- A History of Coordination
- Technological Inflection Points
- Difficult of seeing what happens after an Inflection Point
- The Intelligence Explosion
- An Optimisation Power Applied To Itself
- Group Minds
- The HIVE Singularity: A Networked Global Mind
- The Biointelligence explosion
- Humans are difficult to optimise
An Overview of Models of the Technological Singularity
See Anders’ paper ‘An overview of models of technological singularity‘
This paper reviews different definitions and models of technological singularity. The models range from conceptual sketches to detailed endogenous growth models, as well as attempts to fit empirical data to quantitative models. Such models are useful for examining the dynamics of the world-system and possible types of future crisis points where fundamental transitions are likely to occur. Current models suggest that, generically, even small increasing returns tends to produce radical growth. If mental capital becomes copyable (such as would be the case for AI or brain emulation) extremely rapid growth would also become likely.
http://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf
A list of models described in the paper:
A. Accelerating change
Exponential or superexponential technological growth (with linked economical growth and social change) (Ray Kurzweil (Kur05), John Smart (Smang))
B. Self improving technology
Better technology allows faster development of new and better technology. (Flake (Fla06))
C. Intelligence explosion
Smarter systems can improve themselves, producing even more intelligence in a strong feedback loop. (I.J. Good (Goo65), Eliezer Yudkowsky)
D. Emergence of superintelligence
(Singularity Institute) 1
E. Prediction horizon
Rapid change or the emergence of superhuman intelligence makes the future impossible to predict from our current limited knowledge and experience. (Vinge, (Vin93))
F. Phase transition
The singularity represents a shift to new forms of organisation. This could be a fundamental difference in kind such as humanity being succeeded by posthuman or artificial intelligences,
a punctuated equilibrium transition or the emergence of a new meta-system level. (Teilhard de Chardin, Valentin Turchin (Tur77), Heylighen (Hey07))
G. Complexity disaster
Increasing complexity and interconnectedness causes increasing payoffs, but increases instability. Eventually this produces a crisis, beyond which point the dynamics must be different.
(Sornette (JS01), West (BLH+07))
H. Inflexion point
Large-scale growth of technology or economy follows a logistic growth curve. The singularity represents the inflexion point where change shifts from acceleration to de-acceleration. (Extropian
FAQ, T. Modis (Mod02))
I. Infinite progress
The rate of progress in some domain goes to infinity in nite time. (Few, if any, hold this to be plausible 2 )
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