Understanding the New Statistics

Geoff discusses statistics, confidence intervals, Bayesian approaches, meta-analysis, and problems with the use of ‘P’ values in significance testing.

Geoff Cumming v2.00_00_19_07.Still003Discussion points:
– Describe your background and involvement in statistics.
– How have orthodox statistics helped psychology (& science)? How has it harmed the science?
– What methods, models and tools do you commonly use in data analysis and why do you choose them?
– What is the dance of the p values? How do you cope with dancing p’s?
– What is meta-analysis & how is it done? How have meta-analysts coped with the bias in publishing data and results? What has the profession done about it?
– Confidence intervals help compared to p’s, by providing info about variation. Do they help enough? Why not credible intervals? Do you see a role for Bayesian statistics in day-to-day science?
– Where is statistical inference heading? Is there a next big thing and, if so, what is it?
– Does every student need to learn computer programming (“coding”) nowadays?

Interviewed by Kevin Korb and Adam Ford at Monash University Clayton.

Geoff’s YouTube Channel can be found here.
About the book:
Cumming, G. (2012). Understanding The New Statistics: Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Meta-Analysis. New York: Routledge

–    Explains estimation, with many examples.
–    Designed for any discipline that uses statistical significance testing.
–    For advanced undergraduate and graduate students, and researchers.
–    Comes with free ESCI software.
–    May be the first evidence-based statistics textbook.
–    Assumes only prior completion of any intro statistics course.
–    See the dance of the confidence intervals, and many other intriguing things.

The main message of the book is summarised in two short magazine articles, in The Conversation, and InPsych.
Here is an interview on ABC Radio.

Buy ‘Understanding the New Statistics’ from Amazon

his is the first book to introduce the new statistics – effect sizes, confidence intervals, and meta-analysis – in an accessible way. It is chock full of practical examples and tips on how to analyze and report research results using these techniques. The book is invaluable to readers interested in meeting the new APA Publication Manual guidelines by adopting the new statistics – which are more informative than null hypothesis significance testing, and becoming widely used in many disciplines.

Geoff Cumming - The New StatisticsAccompanying the book is the Exploratory Software for Confidence Intervals (ESCI) package, free software that runs under Excel and is accessible at www.thenewstatistics.com. The book’s exercises use ESCI’s simulations, which are highly visual and interactive, to engage users and encourage exploration. Working with the simulations strengthens understanding of key statistical ideas. There are also many examples, and detailed guidance to show readers how to analyze their own data using the new statistics, and practical strategies for interpreting the results. A particular strength of the book is its explanation of meta-analysis, using simple diagrams and examples. Understanding meta-analysis is increasingly important, even at undergraduate levels, because medicine, psychology and many other disciplines now use meta-analysis to assemble the evidence needed for evidence-based practice.

The book’s pedagogical program, built on cognitive science principles, reinforces learning:

  • Boxes provide “evidence-based” advice on the most effective statistical techniques.
  • Numerous examples reinforce learning, and show that many disciplines are using the new statistics.
  • Graphs are tied in with ESCI to make important concepts vividly clear and memorable.
  • Opening overviews and end of chapter take-home messages summarize key points.
  • Exercises encourage exploration, deep understanding, and practical applications.

This highly accessible book is intended as the core text for any course that emphasizes the new statistics, or as a supplementary text for graduate and/or advanced undergraduate courses in statistics and research methods in departments of psychology, education, human development , nursing, and natural, social, and life sciences. Researchers and practitioners interested in understanding the new statistics, and future published research, will also appreciate this book. A basic familiarity with introductory statistics is assumed.

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