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Singularity Skepticism or Advocacy – to what extent is it warranted?

Why are some people so skeptical of the possibility of Super-intelligent Machines, while others take it quite seriously?
Hugo de Garis addresses both ‘Singularity Skepticism’ and advocacy – reasons for believing machine intelligence is not only possible but quite probable!
The Singularity will likely be an unprecedentedly huge issue that we will need to face in the coming decades.

Singularity Skepticism - Hugh de Garis. 2jpg

If you take the average person in the street and you talk to them about a future intelligent machine – there is a lot of skepticism – because today’s machines aren’t intelligent right? I know from my own personal experience that I get incredibly frustrated with computers, they crash all the time, they don’t do what I want… literally I say “I hate computers” but I really love them – so I have an ambivalent relationship with computers..Hugo de Garis
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The exponential growth of technology and resolution of brain-scanning may lead to advanced neuro-engineering. Brain simulation right down to the chemical synapse, or just plain old functional brain representation might be possible within our lifetimes – this would likely lead to a neuromorphic flavour of the singularity.

There have been some enthusiastic and skeptical responses to this video so far on YouTube:

AZR NSMX1 commented that “Computers already have a better memory and a higher speed than human brain, they can learn and recognice the human voice since 1982 with the first software made for Kurzweil Industries, the expert systems are the first steps for thinking, then in 90’s we learned that emotions are more easy for machines than we believed, an emotion is just an uncontrolled reaction an automatic preservation code that may be good or not for a robot to reach its goal. Now in 2010 the Watson supercomputer show us that is able to structure the human language to produce a logic response, if that is not what does the thought, then somebody explain me what means to think. The only thing they still can’t do is the creative thinking and conciousness, but that will be reached between 2030 and 2035. Conciousness is just the amout and quality of the information you can process, IBM Blue Brain team said this, for example we the humans are very stupid when it comes to use and exploit all the possibilities offered by the smell sense compared to dogs or bears, in this dimension a cockroach is smarter than us because they can map the direction of smell to find the food or other members of their group, we can’t do this, we just have no consciusness in that world. Creativity is the most complex thing, if machines reaches creativity then our world will change because we will not only have to work anymore, but what is better we will not have to think anymore haha. Machines gonna do everything.”
 My response: There has certainly been some impressive strides in technological advancement, it might asymptote at some stage – not sure when, but my take is that there won’t likely be many fundamental engineering or scientific bottlenecks that will block or stifle progress – the biggest problems I think will be sociological impediments – human caused. 

Darian Rachel says “Around the 8 minute or so point he makes a statement that a machine will be built that is intelligent and conscious. He seems to pull this idea that it will be conscious “out of the air” somewhere. It seems to be a rather silly idea.”
 My response: while I agree that a conscious machine is likely difficult to build, there doesn’t seem to be much agreement among humans about whether it exists, what consciousness actually is, whether it is a byproduct of (complex?) information processing and whether it is actually computable (using classical computation). Perhaps Hugo de Garis views consciousness as just being self-aware. 

Exile438 responded that the “human brain has 100billion neurons and each connects to 10,000 other neurons, 10^11*10^4=10^15 human brain capacity estimate. Brain scanning resolution and speed of computers doubles every so often so within the next 2 to 3 decades we can simulate a brain on a computer. If we can do that it would run electronically 4million times faster then our chemical brains. This leads to singularity.”
 My response: it’s certainly a strange and exciting time to be alive – the fundamental questions that we have been wrestling with since before recorded history – questions around personal identity and what makes us what we – may be unraveled within the lifetimes of most of us here today. 

Peter Singer & David Pearce on Utilitarianism, Bliss & Suffering

Moral philosophers Peter Singer & David Pearce discuss some of the long term issues with various forms of utilitarianism, the future of predation and utilitronium shockwaves.

Topics Covered

Peter Singer

– long term impacts of various forms of utilitarianism
– Consciousness
– Artificial Intelligence
– Reducing suffering in the long run and in the short term
– Practical ethics
– Pre-implantation genetic screening to reduce disease and low mood
– Lives today are worth the same as lives in the future – though uncertainty must be brought to bear in deciding how one weighs up the importance of life
– The Hedonistic Imperative and how people react to it
– Correlation to high hedonic set points with productivity
existential risks and global catastrophic risks
– Closing factory farms

David Pearce

– Veganism and reducitarianism
– Red meat vs white meat – many more chickens are killed per ton of meat than beef
– Valence research
– Should one eliminate the suffering? And should we eliminate emotions of happiness?
– How can we answer the question of how far suffering is present in different life forms (like insects)?

Talk of moral progress can make one sound naive. But even the darkest cynic should salute the extraordinary work of Peter Singer to promote the interests of all sentient beings.David Pearce
 

 

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Is there a Meaningful Future for Non-Optimal Moral Agents?

In an interview last year, I had a discussion with John Danaher on the Hedonistic Imperative & Superintelligence – a concern he has with HI is that it denies or de-emphasises some kind of moral agency – in moral theory there is a distinction between moral agents (being a responsible actor able to make moral decisions, influence direction of moral progress, shapes its future, and owes duties to others) and moral patients who may be deemed to have limited or no grounds for moral agency/autonomy/responsibility – they are simply a recipient of moral benefits – in contrast to humans, animals could be classified as moral patients – (see Stanford writing on Grounds for Moral Status).

As time goes on, the notion of strong artificial intelligence leading to Superintelligence (which may herald in something like an Intelligence Explosion) and ideas like the hedonistic imperative becomes less sensational sci-fi concepts and more like visions of realizable eventualities. Thinking about moral endpoints comes to me a paradoxical feeling of triumph and disempowerment.

John’s concern is that ensuring the well-being of humans (conscious entities) is consistent with denying their moral agency – minimizing their capacity to act – that there is a danger that the outcome of HI or an Intelligence Explosion may result in sentient life being made very happy forever, but unable to make choices – with a focus on a future entirely based on bliss whilst ignoring other aspects of what makes for a valuable or worthwhile existence.

Artificial Heart chipsSo even if we have a future where a) we are made very happy and b) we are subject to a wide variety of novelty (which I argue for in Novelty Utilitarianism) without some kind of self-determination we may not be able to enjoy part of what arguably makes for a worthwhile existence.

If the argument for moral agency is completely toppled by the argument against free will then I can see why there would be no reason for it – and that bliss/novelty may be enough – though I personally haven’t been convinced that this is the case.

Also the idea that moral agency and novelty should be ranked as auxiliary aspects to the main imperative of reducing suffering/increasing bliss seems problematic – I get the sense that they (agency/novelty) could easily be swapped out for most non-optimal moral agents in the quest for -suffering/+bliss troublesome.
The idea that upon evaluating grounds for moral status, our ethical/moral quotient may not match or even come close to a potential ethical force of a superintelligence is also troubling. If we are serious about the best ethical outcomes, when the time comes, should we be committed to resigning all moral agency to agents that are more adept at producing peek moral outcomes?
ancillary-one-esk-glitchIs it really possible for non-optimal agents to have a meaningful moral input in a universe where they’ve been completely outperformed by moral machines? Is a life of novelty & bliss the most optimal outcome we can hope for?

There probably should be some more discussion on trade-offs between moral agency, peek experience and novelty.

Discussion in this video here starts at 24:02

Below is the whole interview with John Danaher:

The long-term future of AI (and what we can do about it) : Daniel Dewey at TEDxVienna

daniel deweyThis has been one of my favourite simple talks on AI Impacts – Simple, clear and straight to the point. Recommended as an introduction to the ideas (referred to in the title).

I couldn’t find the audio of this talk at TED – it has been added to archive.org:

 

Daniel Dewey is a research fellow in the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology at the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford. His research includes paths and timelines to machine superintelligence, the possibility of intelligence explosion, and the strategic and technical challenges arising from these possibilities. Previously, Daniel worked as a software engineer at Google, did research at Intel Research Pittsburgh, and studied computer science and philosophy at Carnegie Mellon University. He is also a research associate at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

http://www.tedxvienna.at/

 

Media series with James Hughes

James-Hughes---raysJames Hughes the Executive Director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, is a bioethicist and sociologist at Trinity College in Hartford Connecticut where he teaches health policy and serves as Director of Institutional Research and Planning. Dr. Hughes is a Fellow of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a member of Humanity+, the Neuroethics Society, the American Society of Bioethics and Humanities and the Working Group on Ethics and Technology at Yale University. He serves on the State of Connecticut Regenerative Medicine Research Advisory Committee (formerly known as the Stem Cell Research Advisory Board).

A YouTube playlist of interviews and presentations:

Michio Kaku – A History of a Time to Come

Science, Technology & the Future interviews Dr. Michio Kaku on Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity, Biotech and Nanotechnology

  • What is it that is driving this revolution?
  • How do you think your background in Theoretical Physics shape your view on the future of the mind?
  • Intelligence enhancement, Internet of the mind – brain-net, like a hive mind? Where are we at with AI?
  • Many AI experts and scientists agree that some time in the future a Singularity will be possible (often disagreeing about when). What are your thoughts on the Singularity?
  • What about advances in Nanotechnology?
  • Is the Sticky Fingers problem a show stopper?

Michio is the author of many best sellers, most recently “the Future of the Mind” – We are entering a golden age of neuroscience – today it seems much of the discourse today seems to be it’s use in helping understand and treat mental illness (which is great) – though in the future, there will be other profound implications to understanding neuroscience – such as understanding the mechanics of intelligence…

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Michio Kaku’s Biography

Michio Kaku (born January 24, 1947) is an American theoretical physicist, the Henry Semat Professor of Theoretical Physics at the City College of New York, a futurist, and a communicator and popularizer of science. He has written several books about physics and related topics, has made frequent appearances on radio, television, and film, and writes extensive online blogs and articles. He has written three New York Times Best Sellers: Physics of the Impossible (2008), Physics of the Future (2011), and The Future of the Mind (2014).

Kaku is the author of various popular science books:
– Beyond Einstein: The Cosmic Quest for the Theory of the Universe (with Jennifer Thompson) (1987)
– Hyperspace: A Scientific Odyssey through Parallel Universes, Time Warps, and the Tenth Dimension (1994)
– Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century[12] (1998)
– Einstein’s Cosmos: How Albert Einstein’s Vision Transformed Our Understanding of Space and Time (2004)
– Parallel Worlds: A Journey through Creation, Higher Dimensions, and the Future of the Cosmos (2004)
– Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration into the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation, and Time Travel (2008)
– Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 (2011)
– The Future of the Mind: The Scientific Quest to Understand, Enhance, and Empower the Mind (2014)

Also see this previous interview with Michio Kaku:

 

The Future of the Mind‘ – Book on Amazon.

Many thanks to Think Inc. who brought Dr Kaku to Australia!

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Science, Technology & the Future

Michio Kaku – The Future of the Mind – Intelligence Enhancement & the Singularity

Scifuture interview with popular scientist Michio Kaku on the Scientific Quest to Understand, Enhance & Empower the Mind!

The audio of this interview is found here.

Dr. Michio Kaku advocates thinking about some of the radical Transhumanist ideas we all know and love – here he speaks on the frontiers of Neuroscience, Intelligence Enhancement, the Singularity, and his new book ‘The Future of the Mind’!

String theory stems from Albert Einstein’s legacy; it combines the theory of general relativity and quantum mechanics by assuming the multiverse of universes. String field theory then uses the mathematics of fields to put it all into perspectives. Dr Kaku’s goal is to unite the four fundamental forces of nature into one ‘unified field theory’, a theory that seeks to summarise all fundamental laws of the universe in one simple equation.

Note Scifuture did another interview with Michio Kaku – the article can be found here, audio can be found here, and the video can be found here.

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The Future of the Mind‘ – Book on Amazon.

Many thanks to Think Inc. who brought Dr Kaku to Australia!

Subscribe to the Science, Technology & the Future YouTube Channel

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Science, Technology & the Future

Jamais Cascio – The Future and You! Security, Privacy, AI, Geoengineering

Jamais Cascio discusses the Participatory Panopticon, Privacy & Secrecy, the ramifications of Disconnecting from the Chorus, what it means to be a Futurist, the Arc of Human Evolution, Artificial Intelligence, the Need for Meaning, Building Agents to Listen to Us, WorldChanging.com / OpenTheFuture.com, Geoengineering and the Viridian Green movement.

We pollute our data-streams, to control we have over our identifying information. The motivation behind social networks is not to keep your information private.

Jamais Cascio - Privacy, Security the Future and YouInterview was conducted at the Humanity+ conference in San Francisco late 2012.
Jamais Cascio is a San Francisco Bay Area-based writer and ethical futurist specializing in design strategies and possible outcomes for future scenarios.
Jamais Cascio resides in the San Francisco Bay Area Cascio received his undergraduate degree from UC Santa Cruz and later attended UC Berkeley. In the 1990s, Cascio worked for the futurist and scenario planning firm Global Business Network. In 2007 he was a lead author on the Metaverse Roadmap Overview.

Worldchanging

From 2003 to 2006 Cascio helped in the formation of Worldchanging. His activities covered topics related energy and climate change to global development, open source, and bio and nanotechnologies.
On November 29, 2010, Worldchanging announced that due to fundraising difficulties it would shut down. It has since merged with Architecture for Humanity, though detailed plans for the site’s future have not been released.

Open the Future

In early 2006, Cascio established Open The Future as his online home, a title based on his WorldChanging essay, The Open Future.

cascio_jamais_headshot-smSelected by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2009, Cascio writes about the intersection of emerging technologies, environmental dilemmas, and cultural transformation, specializing in the design and creation of plausible scenarios of the future. His work focuses on the importance of long-term, systemic thinking, emphasizing the power of openness, transparency and flexibility as catalysts for building a more resilient society.

Cascio’s work appears in publications as diverse as Metropolis, the Atlantic Monthly, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Policy. He has been featured in multiple documentaries discussing social and environmental futures, including National Geographic Television’s SIX DEGREES, its 2008 program on the effects of global warming, the 2010 Canadian Broadcasting Company feature, SURVIVING THE FUTURE, and the 2013 independent film FIXED: THE SCIENCE/FICTION OF HUMAN AUGMENTATION. He has also been featured in several science-oriented television documentary series.

Cascio currently serves as Director of Impacts Analysis for the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. He is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Cascio was a speaker on the “On The Edge of Independent User-Creation In Gamespace” panel at the 2007 SXSW Interactive Festival. He is a Research Fellow at the Institute for the Future where together with Jane McGonigal in 2008 he helped create and administer the large scale collaborative multiplayer game Superstruct as an advanced strategy to engage lots of other hopeful thinkers in the pursuit of possible strategies and positive outcomes of a proposed future scenario occurring in 2019.
In 2006, Cascio presented a TED Talk at the TED conference “The Future We Will Create,” in Monterey, California. In the presentation he outlined possible available solutions for the emerging world climate and energy crisis.

High Impact Technologies with Andrew Barron

Well that’s an open-ended question: What technologies will have high impact in the future?
I think what we are seeing at the moment – and we are seeing it quite rapidly – is the fusion of the biological sciences and the information sciences period – so it goes beyond AI.
We’re seeing a capacity to manipulate and rewrite genomes – again we are actually need an involvement of an AI to do that properly – but we really are truly seeing a fusion of the biological and information sciences which is opening absolutely transformative technologies – that we probably can’t quite properly predict or name currently – but I imagine that the future would see explosive growth in this area and the emergence disciplines that we can’t even imagine currently.

Andrew Barron - High Impact Technology.New Capacities to manipulate genomes
Yep.. exactly… exactly – so new capacities to manipulate genomes – and equally we are getting much smarter about the risks of that and much more careful with that – but we are realizing also that the genome itself is highly self-organized and massively data-heavy – and yet this fusion of biology and information sciences is liberating entirely new disciplines – and it’s happening at such a pace.  I mean, just in terms of my life as a scientist – we’ve gone from – when I was at school we were told that the human genome was impossible – informatically impossible – there would never be enough computing power in the world to sequence the human genome.  Now we’re sequencing genomes for just over $1000 very very quickly and easily – our challenge now is to be intelligent in what to do with that data.

Andrew Barron - High Impact Technology- Significant Strides in Technology
What’s interesting about the iPhone is not the technology itself – it’s the way that it has changed human behavior.  So we’ve suddenly adapted very very very rapidly to a carryable device that enables us to have immediate communication / immediate access to databases and reference libraries – and their capacity to store endless amounts of images if we choose to do so – and we’ve adapted to that seamlessly – to a point when people feel lost and panic if their phone is broken or is taken away from them.  That’s the more interesting interesting impact of the iPhone – and I think what that says is that we’re going to see humans adapt very quickly easily to other forms of wearable or insert-able technologies – I think we’ve shown by the iPhone example that we have a capacity embrace that kind of change – if it offers convenience and ease and improves our connectivity and quality of life.
In terms of technology though I think that the biggest strides will come from biological – there is research that fuses biology and technology – I think that we are on the cusp of that – the more interesting technological changes will come not through simple technology – but by an understanding of how our brains work – by understanding the human brain.  If we can actually crack that and then interface that with technology – that will get completely transformative technological solutions.
So in the far future could we see humans being a mixture of technology and organic solutions – and would be basically see a re-imagining of humanity – in a far future?  Again I see no reason why not in a far future.

Andrew Barron - AI.00_03_16_08.Still001

Andrew Barron is an Associate Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at Macquarie University. With his team at Macquarie they are exploring the neurobiology of major behavioural systems such as memory, goal-directed behaviour and stress from a comparative and evolutionary perspective. In 2015 Andrew was awarded an ARC Future Fellowship to develop a computational model of the honey bee brain.

Andrew’s PhD (Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge 1999) considered the possibility of the retention of memory through metamorphosis in Drosophila. Prior to his move to Macquarie in 2007 Andrew had the opportunity to work with and be mentored by Prof. Ben Oldroyd (University of Sydney), Prof. Gene Robinson (University of Illinois), Prof. Mandayam Srinivasan and Prof. Ryszard Maleszka (Australian National University).

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The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets with Simon Singh

You may have watched hundreds of episodes of The Simpsons (and its sister show Futurama) without ever realizing that cleverly embedded in many plots are subtle references to mathematics, ranging from well-known equations to cutting-edge theorems and conjectures. That they exist, Simon Singh reveals, underscores the brilliance of the shows’ writers, many of whom have advanced degrees in mathematics in addition to their unparalleled sense of humor.

A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems. Simon Singh, The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets

The Simpsons and their Mathematical SecretsWhile recounting memorable episodes such as “Bart the Genius” and “Homer3,” Singh weaves in mathematical stories that explore everything from p to Mersenne primes, Euler’s equation to the unsolved riddle of P v. NP; from perfect numbers to narcissistic numbers, infinity to even bigger infinities, and much more. Along the way, Singh meets members of The Simpsons’ brilliant writing team—among them David X. Cohen, Al Jean, Jeff Westbrook, and Mike Reiss—whose love of arcane mathematics becomes clear as they reveal the stories behind the episodes.
With wit and clarity, displaying a true fan’s zeal, and replete with images from the shows, photographs of the writers, and diagrams and proofs, The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets offers an entirely new insight into the most successful show in television history.

Buy the book on amazon

An astronomer, a physicist, and a mathematician (it is said) were holidaying in Scotland. Glancing from a train window, they observed a black sheep in the middle of a field. “How interesting,” observed the astronomer, “all Scottish sheep are black!” To which the physicist responded, “No, no! Some Scottish sheep are black!” The mathematician gazed heavenward in supplication, and then intoned, “In Scotland there exists at least one field, containing at least one sheep, at least one side of which is black. Simon Singh, The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets

 

 

Simon Singh is a British author who has specialised in writing about mathematical and scientific topics in an accessible manner. His written works include Fermat’s Last Theorem (in the United States titled Fermat’s Enigma: The Epic Quest to Solve the World’s Greatest Mathematical Problem),The Code Book (about cryptography and its history), Big Bang (about the Big Bang theory and the origins of the universe), Trick or Treatment? Alternative Medicine on Trial[6] (about complementary and alternative medicine) and The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets (about mathematical ideas and theorems hidden in episodes of The Simpsons and Futurama).

Singh has also produced documentaries and works for television to accompany his books, is a trustee of NESTA, the National Museum of Science and Industry and co-founded the Undergraduate Ambassadors Scheme.

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As a society, we rightly adore our great musicians and novelists, yet we seldom hear any mention of the humble mathematician. It is clear that mathematics is not considered part of our culture. Instead, mathematics is generally feared and mathematicians are often mocked. Simon Singh, The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets

Science, Technology & the Future