Posts

Narratives, Values & Progress – Anders Sandberg

Anders Sandberg discusses ideas & values and where we get them from, mindsets for progress, and that we are living in a unique era of technological change but also, importantly we are aware that we are living in an era of great change. Is there a direction in ethics? Is morality real? If so, how do we find it? What will our descendants think of our morals today – will they be weird to future generations?

One of the interesting things about our current world is that we are aware that a lot of ideas about morality are things going on in our culture and in our heads – and are not just the laws of nature – that’s very useful. Some people of course think that there is some ideal or best moral system – and maybe there is – but we’re not very good at finding it. It might turn out that in the long run if there is some kind of ultimate sensible moral – we’re going to find it – but that might take a very long time and might take brains much more powerful than ours – it might turn out that all sufficiently advanced alien civilizations eventually figure out the right thing to do – and do it. But it could also turn out actually when we meet real advanced aliens they’re going to be as confused about philosophy as we are – that’s one of the interesting things to find out about the universe.Anders Sandberg

Points covered:
– Technologies of the Future
– Efficient sustainability, in-vitro meat
– Living in an era of awareness of change
– Values have changed over time
– Will our morals be weird to future generations?
– Where is ethics going?
– Does moral relativism adequately explain reductions in violence?
– Is there an ideal ‘best moral system’? and if so, how do we find it?

Transcript

I grew up reading C.S. Lewis and his Narnia Stories. And at that time I didn’t get what was going on – I think it was when finally I was reading one, I then started thinking ‘this seems like an allegory’ and then sort of realizing ‘a christian allegory’ and then I felt ‘oh dear!’. I had to of course read all of them. In the end I was quite cross at Lewis for trying to foist that kind of stuff on children. He of course was unashamed – he was arguing in his letters ‘of course, if you are a christian you should make christian stories and try to tell them’ – but then of course he hides everything – so instead of having Jesus he turns him into a lion and so on.
But there’s an interesting problem in general of course ‘where do we get our ideas from?’. I grew up in boring Sweden in the 70’s so I had to read a lot of science fiction in order to get excited. That science fiction story reading made me interested in the technology & science and made it real – but it also gave me a sort of libertarian outlook accidentally. I realised that well, maybe our current rules for society are arbitrary – we could change them into something better. And aliens are people too, as well as robots. So in the end that kind of education also set me on my path.
So in general what we read as children effects us in sometimes very subtle ways – I was reading one book about technologies of the future by a German researcher – today of course it is very laughably 60ish – very much thinking about cybernetics and the big technologies, fusion reactions and rockets – but it also got me thinking about ‘we can change the world completely’ – there is no reason to think that it works out that only 700 billion people can live on earth – we rebuild it to house trillions – it wouldn’t be a particularly nice world, it would be nightmarish by our current standards – but it would actually be possible to do. It’s rather that we have a choice of saying ‘maybe we want to keep our world rather small scale with just a few billion people on it’. Other would say ‘we can’t event sustain a few billion people on the planet – we’re wearing out the biosphere’ – but again it’s based on a certain assumption about how the biosphere functions – we can produce the food more efficiently than we currently do. If we went back to the primitive hunter gatherers we would need several hundred earths to sustain us all simply hunter gatherers need enormous areas of land in order to get enough prey to hunt down in order to survive. Agriculture is much more effective – and we can go far beyond that – things like hydroponics and in-vitro meat might actually in the future mean that we would say it’s absolutely disgusting, or rather weird to culture farmland or eat animals! ‘Why would you actually eat animals? Well only disgusting people back in the stone-age did that’. In that stone age they were using silicone of course.
Dividing history into ages is very fraught because when you declare that ‘this is the atomic age’ you make certain assumptions – so the atomic age didn’t turn out so well because people lost their faith in their friend the atom – the space age didn’t turn out to be a space age because people found better ways of using the money – in a sense we went out into space prematurely before there was a good business case for it. The computer age on the other hand – well now computers are so everywhere that we could just as well call it the air age – it’s everywhere. Similarly the internet – that’s just the latest innovation – probably as people in the future look back we’re going to call it something completely different – just like we want to divide history into things like the Medieval age, or the Renaissance, which are not always more than just labels. What I think is unique about our era in history is that we’re very aware that we are living in a changing world; that is not going to be the same in 100 years, that is going to be utterly utterly different from what it was 100 years back. So many historical eras people have been thinking ‘oh we’re on the cusp of greatness or a great disaster’. But we actually have objective good reasons for thinking things cannot remain as they were. There are too many people, too many brains, too much technology – and a lot of these technologies are very dangerous and very transformative – so if we can get through this without too much damage to ourselves and the planet, I think we are going to have a very interesting future. But it’s also probably going to be a future that is somewhat alien from what we can foresee.
If we took an ancient roman and put him into the modern society he would absolutely shocked – not just by our technology, but by our values. We are very clear that compassion is a good virtue, and he would say the opposite and say ‘compassion is for old ladies’ – and of course a medieval knight would say ‘you have no honor in the 21st century’ and we’d say ‘oh yes, honor killings and all that – that’s bad, yeah actually a lot of those medieval honorable ideals they’re actually immoral by our standards’. So we should probably take that our moral standards are going to be regarded by the future as equally weird and immoral – and this is of course a rather chilling thought because our personal information is going to be available in the future to our descendants or even ourselves as older people with different values – a lot of advanced technologies we are worrying about are going to be wielded by our children, or by an older version of ourselves in ways we might not approve – but they’re going to say ‘yes but we’ve actually figured out the ethics now’.
The problem of course of where ethics is ever going is a really interesting question in itself – so people say oh yes, it’s just relative, it’s just societies making up rules to live by – but I do think we learned a few things – the reduction in violence over historical eras shows that we are getting something right. I don’t think that our relatives could just say that ‘violence is arbitrarily sometimes good and sometimes bad’ – I think it’s very clearly a bad thing. So I think we are making moral progress in some sense – we are figuring out better ways of thinking about morality. One of the interesting things about our current world is that we are aware that a lot of ideas about morality are things going on in our culture and in our heads – and are not just the laws of nature – that’s very useful. Some people of course think that there is some ideal or best moral system – and maybe there is – but we’re not very good at finding it. It might turn out that in the long run if there is some kind of ultimate sensible moral – we’re going to find it – but that might take a very long time and might take brains much more powerful than ours – it might turn out that all sufficiently advanced alien civilizations eventually figure out the right thing to do – and do it. But it could also turn out actually when we meet real advanced aliens they’re going to be as confused about philosophy as we are – that’s one of the interesting things to find out about the universe.

anders-sandberg-will-our-morals-be-weird-to-future-generations

Points covered:
– Technologies of the Future
– Efficient sustainability, in-vitro meat
– Living in an era of awareness of change
– Values have changed over time
– Will our morals be weird to future generations?
– Where is ethics going?
– Does moral relativism adequately explain reductions in violence?
– Is there an ideal ‘best moral system’? and if so, how do we find it?

Can We Improve the Science of Solving Global Coordination Problems? Anders Sandberg

Anders Sandberg discusses solving coordination problems:

anders-s-02_40_16_03-still042Includes discussion on game theory including:the prisoners dilemma (and the iterated form), the tit-for-tat strategy, and reciprocal altruism. He then discusses politics, and why he considers himself a ‘heretical libertarian’ – then contrasts the benefits and risks of centralized planning vs distributed trial & error and links this in with discussion on Existential Risk – centralizing very risky projects at the risk of disastrous coordination failures. He discusses groupthink and what forms of coordination work best. Finally he emphasises the need for a science of coordination – a multidisciplinary approach including:

  1. Philosophy
  2. Political Science
  3. Economics
  4. Game Theory

Also see the tutorial on the Prisoners Dilemma:

And Anders paper on AGI models.

A metasystem transition is the evolutionary emergence of a higher level of organisation or control in a system. A number of systems become integrated into a higher-order system, producing a multi-level hierarchy of control. Within biology such evolutionary transitions have occurred through the evolution of self-replication, multicellularity, sexual reproduction, societies etc. where smaller subsystems merge without losing differentiation yet often become dependent on the larger entity. At the beginning of the process the control mechanism is rudimentary, mainly coordinating the subsystems. As the whole system develops further the subsystems specialize and the control systems become more effective. While metasystem transitions in biology are seen as caused by biological evolution, other systems might exhibit other forms of evolution (e.g. social change or deliberate organisation) to cause metasystem transitions. Extrapolated to humans, future transitions might involve parts or the whole of the human species becoming a super-organism.Anders Sandberg

Anders discusses similar issues in ‘The thermodynamics of advanced civilizations‘ – Is the current era the only chance at setting up the game rules for our future light cone? (Also see here)

anders-sandberg-coordination-problems-3b

Further reading
The Coordination Game: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordination_game

Anders Sandberg -The Technological Singularity

Anders Sandberg.00_23_53_16.Still031Anders gives a short tutorial on the Singularity – clearing up confusion and highlighting important aspects of the Technological Singularity and related ideas, such as accelerating change, horizons of predictability, self-improving artificial intelligence, and the intelligence explosion.

Tutorial Video:

Points covered in the tutorial:

  • The Mathematical Singularity
  • The Technological Singularity: A Horizon of predictability
  • Confusion Around The Technological Singularity
  • Drivers of Accelerated Growth
  • Technology Feedback Loops
  • A History of Coordination
  • Technological Inflection Points
  • Difficult of seeing what happens after an Inflection Point
  • The Intelligence Explosion
  • An Optimisation Power Applied To Itself
  • Group Minds
  • The HIVE Singularity: A Networked Global Mind
  • The Biointelligence explosion
  • Humans are difficult to optimise

An Overview of Models of the Technological Singularity

anders-sandberg-technology-feedback-loopsSee Anders’ paper ‘An overview of models of technological singularity
This paper reviews different definitions and models of technological singularity. The models range from conceptual sketches to detailed endogenous growth models, as well as attempts to fit empirical data to quantitative models. Such models are useful for examining the dynamics of the world-system and possible types of future crisis points where fundamental transitions are likely to occur. Current models suggest that, generically, even small increasing returns tends to produce radical growth. If mental capital becomes copyable (such as would be the case for AI or brain emulation) extremely rapid growth would also become likely.
http://agi-conf.org/2010/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf

[The] Technological singularity is of increasing interest among futurists both as a predicted possibility in the midterm future and as subject for methodological debate. The concept is used in a variety of contexts, and has acquired an unfortunately large number of meanings. Some versions stress the role of artificial intelligence, others refer to more general technological change. These multiple meanings can overlap, and many writers use combinations of meanings: even Vernor Vinge’s seminal essay that coined the term uses several meanings. Some of these meanings may imply each other but often there is a conflation of different elements that likely (but not necessarily) occur in parallel. This causes confusion and misunderstanding to the extent that some critics argue that the term should be avoided altogether. At the very least the term ‘singularity’ has led to many unfortunate assumptions that technological singularity involves some form of mathematical singularity and can hence be ignored as unphysical.Anders Sandberg

A list of models described in the paper:

A. Accelerating change

Exponential or superexponential technological growth (with linked economical growth and social change) (Ray Kurzweil (Kur05), John Smart (Smang))

B. Self improving technology

Better technology allows faster development of new and better technology. (Flake (Fla06))

C. Intelligence explosion

Smarter systems can improve themselves, producing even more intelligence in a strong feedback loop. (I.J. Good (Goo65), Eliezer Yudkowsky)

D. Emergence of superintelligence

(Singularity Institute) 1

E. Prediction horizon

Rapid change or the emergence of superhuman intelligence makes the future impossible to predict from our current limited knowledge and experience. (Vinge, (Vin93))

F. Phase transition

The singularity represents a shift to new forms of organisation. This could be a fundamental difference in kind such as humanity being succeeded by posthuman or artificial intelligences,
a punctuated equilibrium transition or the emergence of a new meta-system level. (Teilhard de Chardin, Valentin Turchin (Tur77), Heylighen (Hey07))

G. Complexity disaster

Increasing complexity and interconnectedness causes increasing payoffs, but increases instability. Eventually this produces a crisis, beyond which point the dynamics must be different.
(Sornette (JS01), West (BLH+07))

H. Inflexion point

Large-scale growth of technology or economy follows a logistic growth curve. The singularity represents the inflexion point where change shifts from acceleration to de-acceleration. (Extropian
FAQ, T. Modis (Mod02))

I. Infinite progress

The rate of progress in some domain goes to infinity in nite time. (Few, if any, hold this to be plausible 2 )

anders-sandberg-the-technological-singularity-predictability-horizon

Many thanks for watching!

Consider supporting SciFuture by:
a) Subscribing to the YouTube channel:
b) Donating via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scifuture and/or
c) Sharing the media SciFuture creates

Science, Technology & the Future: http://scifuture.org

The Quantified Self with Anders Sandberg (in under 2 mins)

Quantified_self_logoThe Quantified Self movement is usefully encouraging loads of people to record metrics about their personal health – the resulting big data will be useful to mine in doing research on how food and lifestyle impact health.
There are also some ethical issues around privacy if personal metrics are used inappropriately.

Here is an interview with Anders Sandberg on QS:

Quantified Self.00_00_03_21.Still034

Consider supporting me by:
a) Subscribing to my YouTube channel: http://youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=TheRationalFuture
b) Donating via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scifuture and/or
c) Sharing the media I create

Kind regards,
Adam Ford
– Science, Technology & the Future: http://scifuture.org

‘Wake Enhancement’: Is sleep better than medicine?

‘Wake Enhancement’: Is sleep better than medicine?
Are well rested people happier and more productive people?

We have ways of making people go to sleep, and ways of preventing people going to sleep – but that’s not nessecarily the best solution. The best solution is guaranteed 8 hours of sleep.Anders Sandberg

Generally anecdotal feedback from grinders, transhumanists and futurists that I have met with often get into the habit of loosing sleep, and depending on coffee or other nutropics like modafinil to get through the day – while this can help as a palliative to easing the effects of not getting enough sleep – they shouldn’t be seen as replacements to a full night of sleep.  Perhaps at some stage in the future we will have technology that can effectively replace sleep – though as of 2016, it is not here yet.
According to the National Sleep Foundation in America, the recommended sleep time for adults from 18-65 is 7-9 hours and 7-8 hours for those over 65.

This video is the product of an unscripted conversation as part of an interview series with Oxford scholar Anders Sandberg – it turned out quite interesting.

* Also see other sections of the interview in this playlist!

The cycle of sleeping during the night and waking up at dawn is a natural part of human life that arguably has been with us and our ancestors for 100’s of thousands of years – yet very recently scientists begun to understand the relationship between daylight/darkness to the alternating cycle of sleep and waking. Melatonin is a natural hormone produced by the body’s pineal gland which helps regulate sleep patterns – it is also found in some foods – and may be useful as a supplement to help get the body’s circadian rhythm. approval by the FDA).

The NSA has an article on Melatonin which says “For melatonin to be helpful, the correct dosage, method and time of day it is taken must be appropriate to the sleep problem. Taking it at the “wrong” time of day may reset your biological clock in an undesirable direction. How much to take, when to take it, and melatonin’s effectiveness, if any, for particular sleep disorders is only beginning to be understood.”

[Referring to Melatonin pills] Now that’s useful because you can reset your diurnal rhythm. Now typically jet-lag is nasty because your brain is out of synch – it’s sending signals to the rest of the body on what it’s supposed to do that doesn’t fit your activity – so everything goes a bit haywire. Melatonins kind of good because it cuts in a reset signal – right now, it’s just after midnight.” – Anders Sandberg

The judicious use of Melatonin supplements can aid in helping your body adjust back into an effective sleeping pattern – and for most cases, is likely to be a wiser option than taking ‘sleeping pills‘.

Sleeping pills shut you down well enough so that you get unconscious at least, but it’s not necessarily that you get good sleep – because during sleep your doing memory consolidation among a lot of other things. So that’s an interesting issue that during the day we want to learn things quickly – we need to get a lot of information. And then we want to store it permenantly but if you learn quickly into your memory, it can erase it quickly too. So ideally you want to re-write it at a slower rate – you actually want to have a kind of write protection on part of your brain. Now that’s probably what’s going on during sleep. During deep sleep the hyppocampus can replay what you have learned during the day – especially the stuff that turned out to be important – to the rest of the brain to store it more safely. And without sleep of course, you’re not going to do that very well.Anders Sandberg

11 Tips to help you achieve quality sleep

Here are 11 tips from the NSA to help you get some extra sleep:

  1. Stick to a sleep schedule of the same bedtime and wake up time, even on the weekends. This helps to regulate your body’s clock and could help you fall asleep and stay asleep for the night.
  2. Practice a relaxing bedtime ritual. A relaxing, routine activity right before bedtime conducted away from bright lights helps separate your sleep time from activities that can cause excitement, stress or anxiety which can make it more difficult to fall asleep, get sound and deep sleep or remain asleep.
  3. If you have trouble sleeping, avoid naps, especially in the afternoon. Power napping may help you get through the day, but if you find that you can’t fall asleep at bedtime, eliminating even short catnaps may help.
  4. Exercise daily. Vigorous exercise is best, but even light exercise is better than no activity. Exercise at any time of day, but not at the expense of your sleep.
  5. Evaluate your room. Design your sleep environment to establish the conditions you need for sleep. Your bedroom should be cool – between 60 and 67 degrees. Your bedroom should also be free from any noise that can disturb your sleep. Finally, your bedroom should be free from any light. Check your room for noises or other distractions. This includes a bed partner’s sleep disruptions such as snoring. Consider using blackout curtains, eye shades, ear plugs, “white noise” machines, humidifiers, fans and other devices.
  6. Sleep on a comfortable mattress and pillows. Make sure your mattress is comfortable and supportive. The one you have been using for years may have exceeded its life expectancy – about 9 or 10 years for most good quality mattresses. Have comfortable pillows and make the room attractive and inviting for sleep but also free of allergens that might affect you and objects that might cause you to slip or fall if you have to get up
  7. During the night Use bright light to help manage your circadian rhythms. Avoid bright light in the evening and expose yourself to sunlight in the morning. This will keep your circadian rhythms in check.
  8. Avoid alcohol, cigarettes, and heavy meals in the evening. Alcohol, cigarettes and caffeine can disrupt sleep. Eating big or spicy meals can cause discomfort from indigestion that can make it hard to sleep. If you can, avoid eating large meals for two to three hours before bedtime. Try a light snack 45 minutes before bed if you’re still hungry.
  9. Wind down. Your body needs time to shift into sleep mode, so spend the last hour before bed doing a calming activity such as reading. For some people, using an electronic device such as a laptop can make it hard to fall asleep, because the particular type of light emanating from the screens of these devices is activating to the brain. If you have trouble sleeping, avoid electronics before bed or in the middle of the night.
  10. If you can’t sleep, go into another room and do something relaxing until you feel tired. It is best to take work materials, computers and televisions out of the sleeping environment. Use your bed only for sleep and sex to strengthen the association between bed and sleep. If you associate a particular activity or item with anxiety about sleeping, omit it from your bedtime routine.
  11. If you’re still having trouble sleeping, don’t hesitate to speak with your doctor or to  find a sleep professional. You may also benefit from recording your sleep in a Sleep Diary  to help you better evaluate common patterns or issues you may see with your sleep or sleeping habits.

 

Notes, References & Extra Reading

See Anders’ page on ‘Optimized Sleep

Consider reading Anders’ paper: ‘Sleep better than medicine? Ethical issues related to “wake enhancement”

Abstract: This paper deals with new pharmacological and technological developments in the manipulation and curtailment of our sleep needs. While humans have used various methods throughout history to lengthen diurnal wakefulness, recent advances have been achieved in manipulating the architecture of the brain states involved in sleep. The progress suggests that we will gradually become able to drastically manipulate our natural sleep-wake cycle. Our goal here is to promote discussion on the desirability and acceptability of enhancing our control over biological sleep, by illustrating various potential attendant ethical problems. We draw attention to the risks involved, possible conflicts of interests underlying the development of wake enhancement, and the potential impact on accountability for fatigue related errors.

sleepVideo here

Paper: http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sleep-better-than-medicine.pdf