Foresight Superpowers – an interview with John Smart
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Foresight Superpowers – an interview with John Smart

ByAdam Ford

Anticipating, Creating, & Leading the Accelerating Future John Smart gave an outline of topics in his new book ‘Introduction to Foresight: Personal, Team, and Organizational Adaptiveness‘. John will also speak at the up and coming conference ‘Stepping into the Future‘ – this talk will be ‘The Goodness of the Universe: Outer Space, Inner Space, and…

Heavy-Tailed Distributions: What Lurks Beyond Our Intuitions?
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Heavy-Tailed Distributions: What Lurks Beyond Our Intuitions?

ByAdam Ford

Understanding heavy-tailed distributions are important to assessing likelihoods and impact scales when thinking about possible disasters – especially relevant to xRisk and Global Catastrophic Risk analysis. How likely is civilization to be devastated by a large scale disaster or even go extinct? Anders discusses how heavy-tailed distributions account for more than our intuitions tell us….