How likely is civilization to devastated by a global disaster or even go extinct?
Anders discusses (with a whiteboard) how heavy-tailed distributions account for more than our intuitions tell us – he also covers issues of heavy tailed disaster distributions.
Avoiding xRisks is far more important than we think.
We should pay more attention probability theory (esp heavy-tailed distributions) in order to discover and avoid disasters that lurk beyond our intuitions.
Also see –
– Anders Sandberg: The Survival Curve of Our Species: Handling Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks
Anders Sandberg on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Sandberg
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