Heavy-Tailed Distributions: What Lurks Beyond Our Intuitions?

How likely is civilization to devastated by a global disaster or even go extinct?
Anders discusses (with a whiteboard) how heavy-tailed distributions account for more than our intuitions tell us – he also covers issues of heavy tailed disaster distributions.

Avoiding xRisks is far more important than we think.

We should pay more attention probability theory (esp heavy-tailed distributions) in order to discover and avoid disasters that lurk beyond our intuitions.

Also see –
– Anders Sandberg: The Survival Curve of Our Species: Handling Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks

Anders Sandberg on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Sandberg

anders-sandberg-03_41_59_21-still025

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– Science, Technology & the Future: http://scifuture.org